Markets
Dispersion Defines Today’s Cryptocurrency Market
One of the most interesting features of today’s crypto markets is the high level of dispersion, or the range of returns between different parts of the market.
In today’s liquid markets, infrastructure and technology-focused sectors have significantly outperformed more consumer-facing categories like gaming, metaverse and entertainment tokens.
The performance of CoinDesk sector indices since November 2021 (the peak of the last bull market) reveals this trend.
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The “range” value, which indicates the difference between the maximum and minimum cumulative returns at each point in time, highlights the level of dispersion. Dispersion started at a high level in Q4 2021 due to a surge in cultural and entertainment developments. It then fell in 2022 as the market collapsed, correlations increased, and assets traded largely in sync.
However, dispersion has been increasing since 2023, with a significant recovery in Q4 last year, with currencies and smart contract platforms (infrastructure) breaking away from the rest of the market. In 2024, dispersion is at its highest level over this period, with culture and entertainment tokens continuing to decline, while BTC, ETH and other smart contract platform tokens outperform.
Let’s look at a few examples to illustrate this last point. The current maximum drawdown of the overall market (using the CoinDesk Market Index) has been -33% over this period. Compare this to some of the largest consumer tokens in the gaming and culture and entertainment sectors, including Axie Infinity (gaming), Decentraland and The Sandbox (metaverses), and Apecoin (the token associated with the Bored Ape Yacht Club NFT collection). The maximum drawdowns for these tokens have been -96%, -94%, -96%, and -96%, respectively. They have not participated in the market recovery during this cycle.
Another way to look at dispersion is to use the 30-day moving average of the daily standard deviation of CoinDesk sector index returns. Since the fourth quarter of last year, sector dispersion has generally been higher than average. This high level of dispersion indicates that the market is no longer moving in unison, and that different sectors are experiencing different growth trajectories based on their underlying fundamentals and investor interest.
To dig deeper, we look at the number of multi-billion dollar tokens in each sector (sectors are defined by Hack VC) five years ago compared to today. In 2019, currencies dominated the market: BTC and its competitors. Today, half of the tokens are in the infrastructure sector (layer 1 and layer 2 blockchains). This sector has seen massive growth over the last five years. We also see new sectors emerging. AI, for example, is a relatively new part of the market that brings together two of the most exciting emerging technologies: crypto and AI. While there is much hype and promise, real benefits already exist. Over the next five years, we expect new sectors and sub-sectors to emerge.
This dispersion and development of new sectors over time is positive for active managers. It indicates increasing sophistication in the market, with value being rewarded and fundamentals becoming increasingly important. Dispersion also provides significant opportunities for alpha generation. It makes it easier for active managers with alpha to outperform the market, but it also increases the risk of underperformance without a solid strategy.
In this context, investors must be more selective and better informed about the sectors and projects in which they invest. Active management becomes crucial, as the market rewards those who know how to identify and capitalize on trends. These markets are also particularly favorable to investors who have a deep understanding of technological advances and the ability to distinguish long-term value from short-term hype.
The information contained herein is provided for general information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon in evaluating any investment decision. This information should not be relied upon for accounting, legal, tax, business, investment or other advice. You should consult your own advisors, including your own attorney, for accounting, legal, tax, business, investment or other advice, including with respect to anything discussed in this document.
This article reflects the current views of the authors and is not written on behalf of Hack VC or its affiliates, including funds managed by Hack VC, and does not necessarily reflect the views of Hack VC, its affiliates, including its sponsored affiliates, or any other person associated with Hack VC. Some of the information contained herein has been obtained from published sources and/or prepared by third parties and, in some cases, has not been updated as of the date of this document. While these sources are believed to be reliable, neither Hack VC nor its affiliates, including its sponsored affiliates, nor any other person associated with Hack VC makes any representation as to their accuracy or completeness, and they should not be relied upon as such or used as the basis for any accounting, legal, tax, business, investment or other decision. The information contained herein does not purport to be complete and is subject to change and Hack VC has no obligation to update this information or to provide notification if such information becomes inaccurate.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Forward-looking statements made in this document are based on certain assumptions and analyses made by the author in light of its experience and its perception of historical trends, current conditions and expected future developments, as well as other factors it believes are appropriate in the circumstances. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict.
Over the past 24 hours, Jupiter and JasmyCoin emerged as the top gainers among the top 100 crypto assets, while Bittensor and Mantra plunged as the top losers.
Top Winners
Jupiter
Jupiter (JUP) led the charge among the biggest gainers on July 27.
At the time of writing, the crypto asset had surged 12.6% in the past 24 hours and was trading at $1.16. JUP’s daily trading volume was hovering around $282 million, according to data from crypto.news.
JUP Hourly Price Chart, July 26-27 | Source: crypto.news
Additionally, the cryptocurrency’s market cap stood at $1.56 billion, making it the 62nd largest crypto asset, according to CoinGecko. Despite the recent price surge, the token is still down 42.6% from its all-time high of $2 reached on Jan. 31.
Jupiter functions as a decentralized exchange aggregator that allows users to trade Solana-based tokens. The platform also offers users the best routes for direct trades between multiple exchanges and liquidity pools.
In addition to being a DEX aggregator, Jupiter has expanded into a “full stack ecosystem” by launching several new projects, including a dedicated pool to support perpetual trading and plans for a stablecoin.
JasmyCoin
JasmyCoin (JASMI) has increased by 12% in the last 24 hours and is trading at $0.0328 at press time. JASMY’s daily trading volume has increased by 10% in the last 24 hours, reaching $146 million.
JASMY Hourly Price Chart, July 26-27 | Source: crypto.news
The asset’s market cap has surpassed the $1.5 billion mark, making it the 60th largest cryptocurrency at the time of reporting. However, the self-proclaimed “Bitcoin of Japan” is still down 99.3% from its all-time high of $4.79 on February 16, 2021.
JASMY is the native token of Jasmy Corporation, a Japanese Internet of Things provider. The platform seeks to merge the decentralization of blockchain technology with IoT, allowing users to convert their digital information into digital assets.
The initiative was launched by Kunitake Ando, former COO of Sony Corporation, along with Kazumasa Sato, former CEO of Sony Style.com Japan Inc., Hiroshi Harada, executive financial analyst at KPMG, and other senior executives from Japan.
Kaspa
Kaspa (KAS) saw a 100% increase in trading volume and an 8% increase in price over the past 24 hours, trading at $0.19 at the time of publication.
KAS Hourly Price Chart, July 26-27 | Source: crypto.news
According to data from CoinGecko, Kaspa now ranks 27th in the global cryptocurrency list, with a circulating supply of approximately 24.29 billion KAS tokens and a market capitalization of $4.59 billion.
Kaspa is a cryptocurrency designed to deliver a high-performance, scalable, and secure blockchain platform. Its unique Layer-1 protocol includes the GhostDAG protocol, a proof-of-work (PoW) consensus mechanism that enables faster block times and higher transaction throughput compared to standard blockchains.
Unlike Bitcoin, GhostDAG allows multiple blocks to be created simultaneously, speeding up transactions and increasing block rewards for miners.
Bonk
Bonk (BONK) is the only one coin meme which made it to this list of biggest gainers and jumped 8.6% in the last 24 hours. Trading at $0.000030, the Solana-based meme coin’s market cap has surpassed $2.1 billion, surpassing Floki (FLOKI), another competing dog-themed coin with a market cap of $1.78 billion.
BONK Hourly Price Chart, July 26-27 | Source: crypto.news
BONK’s daily trading volume hovered around $285 million. However, BONK is still down 33.5% from its all-time high of $0.000045, reached on March 4.
Bonk, a meme coin that rose to prominence in 2023, has contributed significantly to Solana’s value increase amid the meme coin frenzy.
Bonk started out as a simple dog-themed coin. It has since expanded its features to include integration with decentralized finance. The project also partners with cross-chain communication protocols, NFT marketplaces, and various other cryptocurrency ecosystems.
BONK trading pairs are now listed on major exchanges including Binance, Coinbase, OKX, and Bitstamp.
The big losers
Bittensor
Bittensor (TAO) was the biggest loser among the 100 largest crypto assets, according to data from CoinGecko.
At the time of writing, TAO, the native token of decentralized AI project Bittensor, was down 5%, trading around $344. The crypto asset had a daily trading volume of $59 million and a market cap of $2.43 billion.
TAO 24 Hour Price Chart | Source: CoinGecko
Bittensor, created in 2019 by AI researchers Ala Shaabana and Jacob Steeves, initially operated as a parachain on Polkadot before transitioning to its own layer-1 blockchain in March 2023.
Mantra
Mantra (OM) fell 6%, trading at $1.13 at press time. The digital currency’s market cap fell to $938 million. Additionally, the 82nd largest crypto asset has a daily trading volume of $26 million.
OM Price Hourly Chart, July 26-27 | Source: crypto.news
Mantra is a modular blockchain network comprising two chains, Manta Pacific and Manta Atlantic, specialized in zero-knowledge applications.
Coat
Coat (MNT) also saw a 2.4% drop in price, now trading at $0.8413. Currently, Mantle has a market cap of around $2.75 billion, which ranks 36th in the global cryptocurrency rankings by market cap, according to price data from crypto.news.
MNT Hourly Price Chart, July 26-27 | Source: crypto.news
Over the past 24 hours, MNT trading volume also fell by 6%, reaching $240 million.
Mantle, formerly known as BitDAO, is an investment DAO closely associated with Bybit. The MNT token is essential for governance, paying gas fees on the Mantle network, and staking on various platforms.
Built on the Ethereum network, Mantle provides a platform for decentralized application developers to launch their projects. It has become particularly popular for GameFi applications, leading to the formation of an internal Web3 gaming team.
Markets
Bitcoin Price Drops to $67,000 Despite Trump’s Pro-Crypto Comments, Further Correction Ahead?
Pioneer cryptocurrency Bitcoin has registered a 1.13% decline in the past 24 hours to trade at $67,400. Despite a strong pro-crypto stance from US presidential candidate Donald Trump at the Bitcoin 2024 conference, this massive selloff has raised concerns in the market about the asset’s sustainability at a higher price. However, given the recent three-week rally, a slight pullback this weekend is justifiable and necessary to regain the depleted bullish momentum.
Bitcoin Price Flag Formation Hints at Opportunity to Break Beyond $80,000
The medium-term trend Bitcoin Price remains a sideways trend amidst the formation of a bullish flag pattern. This chart pattern is defined by two descending lines that are currently shaping the price trajectory by providing dynamic resistance and support.
On July 5, BTC saw a bullish reversal from the flag pattern at $53,485, increasing its asset by 29.75% to a high of $69,400. This recent spike followed the market’s positive sentiment towards the Donald Trump speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville on Saturday afternoon.
Bitcoin Price | Tradingview
In his speech, Trump outlined several pro-crypto initiatives: he promised to replace SEC Chairman Gary Gensler on his first day in office, to establish a Strategic National Reserve of Bitcoin if elected, to ensure that the U.S. government holds all of its assets. Bitcoin assets and block any attempt to create a central bank digital currency (CBDC) during his presidency.
He also claimed that under his leadership, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies will skyrocket like never before.
Despite Donald Trump’s optimistic promises, the BTC price failed to reach $70,000 and is currently trading at $67,400. As a result, Bitcoin’s market cap has dipped slightly to hover at $1.335 trillion.
However, this pullback is justified, as Bitcoin price has recently seen significant growth over the past three weeks, which has significantly improved market sentiment. Thus, price action over the weekend could replenish the depleted bullish momentum, potentially strengthening an attempt to break out from the flag pattern at $70,130.
A successful breakout will signal the continuation of the uptrend and extend the Bitcoin price forecast target at $78,000, followed by $84,000.
On the other hand, if the supply pressure on the upper trendline persists, the asset price could trigger further corrections for a few weeks or months.
Technical indicator:
- Pivot levels: The traditional pivot indicator suggests that the price pullback could see immediate support at $64,400, followed by a correction floor at $56,700.
- Moving average convergence-divergence: A bullish crossover state between the MACD (blue) and the signal (orange) ensure that the recovery dynamics are intact.
Related Articles
Frequently Asked Questions
A CBDC is a digital form of fiat currency issued and regulated by a country’s central bank. It aims to provide a digital alternative to traditional banknotes.
The proposal for a strategic national Bitcoin reserve is a major confirmation of Bitcoin’s legitimacy and potential as a reserve asset. Such a move could position Bitcoin in a similar way to gold, potentially stabilizing its price and encouraging other countries to adopt similar strategies.
Conferences like Bitcoin 2024 serve as essential platforms for networking, knowledge sharing, and showcasing new technologies within the cryptocurrency industry.
Markets
Swiss crypto bank Sygnum reports profitability after surge in first-half trading volumes – DL News
- Sygnum says it has reached profitability after increasing transaction volumes.
- The Swiss crypto bank does not disclose specific profit figures.
Sygnum, a Swiss global crypto banking group with approximately $4.5 billion in client assets, announced that it has achieved profitability after a strong first half, with key metrics showing year-to-date growth.
The company said in a Press release Compared to the same period last year, cryptocurrency spot trading volumes doubled, cryptocurrency derivatives trading increased by 500%, and lending volumes increased by 360%. The exact figures for the first half of the year were not disclosed.
Sygnum said its staking service has also grown, with the percentage of Ethereum staked by customers increasing to 42%. For institutional clients, staking Ethereum has a benefit that goes beyond the limitations of the ETF framework, which excludes staking returns, Sygnum noted.
“The approval and launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs was a turning point for the crypto industry this year, leading to a major increase in demand for trusted, regulated exposure to digital assets,” said Martin Burgherr, Chief Client Officer of Sygnum.
He added: “This is also reflected in Sygnum’s own growth, with our core business segments recording significant year-to-date growth in the first half of the year.”
Sygnum, which has also been licensed in Luxembourg since 2022, plans to expand into European and Asian markets, the statement said.
Markets
Former White House official Anthony Scaramucci says cryptocurrency bull market could be sparked by regulatory clarity
Anthony Scaramucci, founder of Skybridge Capital, says the next cryptocurrency bull market could be sparked by a new wave of clear cryptocurrency regulations.
In a new interview On CNBC’s Squawk Box, the former White House communications director said he and two other prominent industry figures traveled to Washington, D.C. to speak to officials about the dangers of Sen. Elizabeth Warren and U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler’s hardline approach to cryptocurrency regulation.
“Mark Cuban, myself, and Michael Novogratz were in Washington a few weeks ago to speak with White House officials and explain the dangers of Gary Gensler and Elizabeth Warren’s anti-crypto approach. I hope that message gets through…
“Overall, if we can get regulatory policy around Bitcoin and crypto assets in sync, we will have a bull market next year for these assets.”
Scaramucci then compares crypto assets to ride-hailing company Uber, saying regulators were initially wary of the service but eventually decided to adopt clear guidelines due to public demand.
“Remember Uber: Nobody wanted Uber. A lot of regulators didn’t want it. Mayors and deputy mayors didn’t want it, but citizens wanted Uber and eventually accepted the idea of regulating it fairly. I think we’re there now.”
The CEO also says young Democratic voters believe their leaders are making the wrong choices when it comes to digital assets.
“I think President Trump’s move toward Bitcoin and crypto assets has shaken Democrats to their core, and I think very smart, younger Democrats are recognizing that they are completely off base with their positions, completely off base with these SEC lawsuits and regulation by law enforcement, and now they need to get back to the center.”
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