Markets
What is Polymarket? A Guide to Decentralized Prediction Markets
Prediction markets like Polymarket are becoming increasingly popular due to the perception of increased transparency compared to traditional gambling.
This article will explore how the Polymarket prediction market works, including how to use it and whether or not it is a safe place to store and trade funds.
What are prediction markets?
Prediction markets are peer-to-peer online gambling platforms that allow users to trade stocks tied to the outcome of a future event. Similar to a traditional gambling platform, users can bet on sporting events, political events, and more. However, rather than simply placing a bet, they purchase stocks that fluctuate in value based on current market sentiment about the outcome of the event.
For example, users can bet that candidate X will win a political election. Stocks will typically start trading at $0.50, indicating a 50/50 chance of success or failure. They can be sold at any value as long as the market has liquidity to sell them. If candidate X wins, the stock will be worth $1.00, and if he loses, the price will drop to $0.00.
These markets often accept cryptocurrencies in exchange for shares.
What is Polymarket? Polymarket explained
Polymarket is a prediction market hosted on the Ethereum blockchain. Users can purchase stocks using USD Coin (USDC).
Polymarché | Home page
So what is Polymarket for?
Presentation of Polymarket
Polymarket offers trading on US political outcomes, cryptocurrency prices, sports, world politics and other aspects of trends and news.
Market fluctuations during staking may cause impermanent losswhere the funds involved are consumed by the needs of the market to which the user contributes.
Main features of Polymarket
Polymarket bills itself as a decentralized prediction market. Of course, true decentralization is hard to come by, and Polymarket staff control many different aspects of the platform, including litigation, market creation, maintenance, and other decision-making.
Although not entirely decentralized, it is often considered a fairer and more transparent way to speculate on future events compared to the more opaque systems used in traditional gambling where odds are set by bookmakers at will.
How does Polymarket work?
The platform uses user-provided liquidity pools to facilitate trading. Similarly, event-driven stocks are priced based on trading activity and real-time market valuations by the community. Smart contracts are used to automate some aspects of trading activities.
The CLOB (Centralized Limit Order Book) allows for on-chain, custodian-free settlement of trades, while in the background, off-chain matchmaking services also operate, making the system hybrid-decentralized.
Although the online documentation states that Polymarket does not charge fees for transactions, this appears to be a semantic statement, and in practice the platform charges 2% net on trading profits.
Benefits of using Polymarket
Polymarket is considered more transparent than other gambling platforms due to its use of smart contracts and blockchain technology. Users have much more information about how the prices of their shares are calculated than if they were simply placing a bet at a bookmaker.
Likewise, stocks are programmed to pay out when certain conditions are met and reported in the media, and this programmatic system of guaranteed payouts is perceived as slightly more reliable than traditional games of chance.
There is often a wider range of events open for trading on Polymarket compared to traditional gaming platforms, which levels the playing field for certain analysts with different types of expertise and interests.
Finally, users have the ability to trade stocks while remaining somewhat agnostic about the actual outcome of a future event, a feature not typically supported in traditional gambling games.
Potential risks and challenges
Polymarket is not without its own unique risks and challenges. First, users may find that making money by providing liquidity is easier said than done and can actually be considered a higher-risk endeavor than simply buying stocks. Providing liquidity and profiting from it should be considered somewhat advanced.
The value of staked assets can fluctuate significantly, leaving liquidity providers with worthless or reduced-value assets.
Of course, another risk is losing money by betting on the incorrect outcome of a market. The Polymarket community is known to be more analytical and methodical than regular gambling sites, which makes the competition quite tough for unsuspecting newcomers.
There is also, as always in DeFi, the risk that the platform itself will fail or fall prey to some sort of hack, exploitation, or bad action by the team or outside forces.
Is Polymarket legit?
There is no solid evidence to assess the legitimacy of Polymarket one way or the other. No widely publicized scandals have so far tarnished the platform’s reputation.
TrustPilot reviews contain anecdotal reports from users who feel that some markets they traded in were resolved unfairly or inaccurately, but there is no hard evidence that this is the case at this time.
Polymarket Review: Getting Started with Polymarket
To get started with Polymarket, you will need to create an account and deposit USDC which you can purchase for fiat currencies or cryptocurrencies on most major cryptocurrency exchanges.
First, create an account by signing up with your name and email address. The platform does not require you to provide any ID or pass a KYC check at this time.
Go to your profile and navigate to Wallet, then Deposit to make a deposit in USDC. Once this is done, you are ready to buy and sell stocks at future events!
You can navigate the Polymarket interface by filtering markets based on category.
Polymarché | Markets
Currently, the markets menu includes markets on the Middle East, pop culture, crypto, politics, sports and science.
You can also browse the New, Trending, Liquid and Coming Soon categories.
New markets may have more favorable pricing in some cases, as fewer people will have placed their bets and the outcome will be somewhat uncertain. On the other hand, markets that are ending soon will likely have a fairly well-determined outcome. In some cases, stocks will already be locked in at around $0.99, indicating a 99% probability of a particular outcome.
These markets will be difficult to trade profitably unless you believe that the 1% outcome is the right one. However, sometimes a market that is ending soon has a healthier margin that you can still work with. Markets that are ending soon also tie up your assets for a shorter period of time than a new market, some of which can take months to resolve.
Highly liquid markets are often preferred because buying stocks in a low-liquidity market can cause prices to fall, meaning you lose some of your funds in the trade.
How to Trade and Stay Safe on Polymarket
The Polymarket platform can attract new users due to the multitude of different events in which to buy stocks. New users are often advised to take a methodical and evidence-based approach to predicting the outcome of any event.
Successful Polymarket traders often work with a lot of historical data and build models to predict the probability of an event, rather than simply buying stocks based on intuition. Of course, swing trading is also possible, in which users do not intend to see a market end but rather take profits before the market ends.
As with any type of financial speculation, it is important to have a risk management plan and well-established entry and exit points in order to aim for long-term profitability, as well as to thoroughly research and test any trading strategy before using real funds.
You can Learn more about risk management here.
Disclosure: This article does not constitute investment advice. The content and materials presented on this page are provided for educational purposes only.
Over the past 24 hours, Jupiter and JasmyCoin emerged as the top gainers among the top 100 crypto assets, while Bittensor and Mantra plunged as the top losers.
Top Winners
Jupiter
Jupiter (JUP) led the charge among the biggest gainers on July 27.
At the time of writing, the crypto asset had surged 12.6% in the past 24 hours and was trading at $1.16. JUP’s daily trading volume was hovering around $282 million, according to data from crypto.news.
JUP Hourly Price Chart, July 26-27 | Source: crypto.news
Additionally, the cryptocurrency’s market cap stood at $1.56 billion, making it the 62nd largest crypto asset, according to CoinGecko. Despite the recent price surge, the token is still down 42.6% from its all-time high of $2 reached on Jan. 31.
Jupiter functions as a decentralized exchange aggregator that allows users to trade Solana-based tokens. The platform also offers users the best routes for direct trades between multiple exchanges and liquidity pools.
In addition to being a DEX aggregator, Jupiter has expanded into a “full stack ecosystem” by launching several new projects, including a dedicated pool to support perpetual trading and plans for a stablecoin.
JasmyCoin
JasmyCoin (JASMI) has increased by 12% in the last 24 hours and is trading at $0.0328 at press time. JASMY’s daily trading volume has increased by 10% in the last 24 hours, reaching $146 million.
JASMY Hourly Price Chart, July 26-27 | Source: crypto.news
The asset’s market cap has surpassed the $1.5 billion mark, making it the 60th largest cryptocurrency at the time of reporting. However, the self-proclaimed “Bitcoin of Japan” is still down 99.3% from its all-time high of $4.79 on February 16, 2021.
JASMY is the native token of Jasmy Corporation, a Japanese Internet of Things provider. The platform seeks to merge the decentralization of blockchain technology with IoT, allowing users to convert their digital information into digital assets.
The initiative was launched by Kunitake Ando, former COO of Sony Corporation, along with Kazumasa Sato, former CEO of Sony Style.com Japan Inc., Hiroshi Harada, executive financial analyst at KPMG, and other senior executives from Japan.
Kaspa
Kaspa (KAS) saw a 100% increase in trading volume and an 8% increase in price over the past 24 hours, trading at $0.19 at the time of publication.
KAS Hourly Price Chart, July 26-27 | Source: crypto.news
According to data from CoinGecko, Kaspa now ranks 27th in the global cryptocurrency list, with a circulating supply of approximately 24.29 billion KAS tokens and a market capitalization of $4.59 billion.
Kaspa is a cryptocurrency designed to deliver a high-performance, scalable, and secure blockchain platform. Its unique Layer-1 protocol includes the GhostDAG protocol, a proof-of-work (PoW) consensus mechanism that enables faster block times and higher transaction throughput compared to standard blockchains.
Unlike Bitcoin, GhostDAG allows multiple blocks to be created simultaneously, speeding up transactions and increasing block rewards for miners.
Bonk
Bonk (BONK) is the only one coin meme which made it to this list of biggest gainers and jumped 8.6% in the last 24 hours. Trading at $0.000030, the Solana-based meme coin’s market cap has surpassed $2.1 billion, surpassing Floki (FLOKI), another competing dog-themed coin with a market cap of $1.78 billion.
BONK Hourly Price Chart, July 26-27 | Source: crypto.news
BONK’s daily trading volume hovered around $285 million. However, BONK is still down 33.5% from its all-time high of $0.000045, reached on March 4.
Bonk, a meme coin that rose to prominence in 2023, has contributed significantly to Solana’s value increase amid the meme coin frenzy.
Bonk started out as a simple dog-themed coin. It has since expanded its features to include integration with decentralized finance. The project also partners with cross-chain communication protocols, NFT marketplaces, and various other cryptocurrency ecosystems.
BONK trading pairs are now listed on major exchanges including Binance, Coinbase, OKX, and Bitstamp.
The big losers
Bittensor
Bittensor (TAO) was the biggest loser among the 100 largest crypto assets, according to data from CoinGecko.
At the time of writing, TAO, the native token of decentralized AI project Bittensor, was down 5%, trading around $344. The crypto asset had a daily trading volume of $59 million and a market cap of $2.43 billion.
TAO 24 Hour Price Chart | Source: CoinGecko
Bittensor, created in 2019 by AI researchers Ala Shaabana and Jacob Steeves, initially operated as a parachain on Polkadot before transitioning to its own layer-1 blockchain in March 2023.
Mantra
Mantra (OM) fell 6%, trading at $1.13 at press time. The digital currency’s market cap fell to $938 million. Additionally, the 82nd largest crypto asset has a daily trading volume of $26 million.
OM Price Hourly Chart, July 26-27 | Source: crypto.news
Mantra is a modular blockchain network comprising two chains, Manta Pacific and Manta Atlantic, specialized in zero-knowledge applications.
Coat
Coat (MNT) also saw a 2.4% drop in price, now trading at $0.8413. Currently, Mantle has a market cap of around $2.75 billion, which ranks 36th in the global cryptocurrency rankings by market cap, according to price data from crypto.news.
MNT Hourly Price Chart, July 26-27 | Source: crypto.news
Over the past 24 hours, MNT trading volume also fell by 6%, reaching $240 million.
Mantle, formerly known as BitDAO, is an investment DAO closely associated with Bybit. The MNT token is essential for governance, paying gas fees on the Mantle network, and staking on various platforms.
Built on the Ethereum network, Mantle provides a platform for decentralized application developers to launch their projects. It has become particularly popular for GameFi applications, leading to the formation of an internal Web3 gaming team.
Markets
Bitcoin Price Drops to $67,000 Despite Trump’s Pro-Crypto Comments, Further Correction Ahead?
Pioneer cryptocurrency Bitcoin has registered a 1.13% decline in the past 24 hours to trade at $67,400. Despite a strong pro-crypto stance from US presidential candidate Donald Trump at the Bitcoin 2024 conference, this massive selloff has raised concerns in the market about the asset’s sustainability at a higher price. However, given the recent three-week rally, a slight pullback this weekend is justifiable and necessary to regain the depleted bullish momentum.
Bitcoin Price Flag Formation Hints at Opportunity to Break Beyond $80,000
The medium-term trend Bitcoin Price remains a sideways trend amidst the formation of a bullish flag pattern. This chart pattern is defined by two descending lines that are currently shaping the price trajectory by providing dynamic resistance and support.
On July 5, BTC saw a bullish reversal from the flag pattern at $53,485, increasing its asset by 29.75% to a high of $69,400. This recent spike followed the market’s positive sentiment towards the Donald Trump speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville on Saturday afternoon.
Bitcoin Price | Tradingview
In his speech, Trump outlined several pro-crypto initiatives: he promised to replace SEC Chairman Gary Gensler on his first day in office, to establish a Strategic National Reserve of Bitcoin if elected, to ensure that the U.S. government holds all of its assets. Bitcoin assets and block any attempt to create a central bank digital currency (CBDC) during his presidency.
He also claimed that under his leadership, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies will skyrocket like never before.
Despite Donald Trump’s optimistic promises, the BTC price failed to reach $70,000 and is currently trading at $67,400. As a result, Bitcoin’s market cap has dipped slightly to hover at $1.335 trillion.
However, this pullback is justified, as Bitcoin price has recently seen significant growth over the past three weeks, which has significantly improved market sentiment. Thus, price action over the weekend could replenish the depleted bullish momentum, potentially strengthening an attempt to break out from the flag pattern at $70,130.
A successful breakout will signal the continuation of the uptrend and extend the Bitcoin price forecast target at $78,000, followed by $84,000.
On the other hand, if the supply pressure on the upper trendline persists, the asset price could trigger further corrections for a few weeks or months.
Technical indicator:
- Pivot levels: The traditional pivot indicator suggests that the price pullback could see immediate support at $64,400, followed by a correction floor at $56,700.
- Moving average convergence-divergence: A bullish crossover state between the MACD (blue) and the signal (orange) ensure that the recovery dynamics are intact.
Related Articles
Frequently Asked Questions
A CBDC is a digital form of fiat currency issued and regulated by a country’s central bank. It aims to provide a digital alternative to traditional banknotes.
The proposal for a strategic national Bitcoin reserve is a major confirmation of Bitcoin’s legitimacy and potential as a reserve asset. Such a move could position Bitcoin in a similar way to gold, potentially stabilizing its price and encouraging other countries to adopt similar strategies.
Conferences like Bitcoin 2024 serve as essential platforms for networking, knowledge sharing, and showcasing new technologies within the cryptocurrency industry.
Markets
Swiss crypto bank Sygnum reports profitability after surge in first-half trading volumes – DL News
- Sygnum says it has reached profitability after increasing transaction volumes.
- The Swiss crypto bank does not disclose specific profit figures.
Sygnum, a Swiss global crypto banking group with approximately $4.5 billion in client assets, announced that it has achieved profitability after a strong first half, with key metrics showing year-to-date growth.
The company said in a Press release Compared to the same period last year, cryptocurrency spot trading volumes doubled, cryptocurrency derivatives trading increased by 500%, and lending volumes increased by 360%. The exact figures for the first half of the year were not disclosed.
Sygnum said its staking service has also grown, with the percentage of Ethereum staked by customers increasing to 42%. For institutional clients, staking Ethereum has a benefit that goes beyond the limitations of the ETF framework, which excludes staking returns, Sygnum noted.
“The approval and launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs was a turning point for the crypto industry this year, leading to a major increase in demand for trusted, regulated exposure to digital assets,” said Martin Burgherr, Chief Client Officer of Sygnum.
He added: “This is also reflected in Sygnum’s own growth, with our core business segments recording significant year-to-date growth in the first half of the year.”
Sygnum, which has also been licensed in Luxembourg since 2022, plans to expand into European and Asian markets, the statement said.
Markets
Former White House official Anthony Scaramucci says cryptocurrency bull market could be sparked by regulatory clarity
Anthony Scaramucci, founder of Skybridge Capital, says the next cryptocurrency bull market could be sparked by a new wave of clear cryptocurrency regulations.
In a new interview On CNBC’s Squawk Box, the former White House communications director said he and two other prominent industry figures traveled to Washington, D.C. to speak to officials about the dangers of Sen. Elizabeth Warren and U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler’s hardline approach to cryptocurrency regulation.
“Mark Cuban, myself, and Michael Novogratz were in Washington a few weeks ago to speak with White House officials and explain the dangers of Gary Gensler and Elizabeth Warren’s anti-crypto approach. I hope that message gets through…
“Overall, if we can get regulatory policy around Bitcoin and crypto assets in sync, we will have a bull market next year for these assets.”
Scaramucci then compares crypto assets to ride-hailing company Uber, saying regulators were initially wary of the service but eventually decided to adopt clear guidelines due to public demand.
“Remember Uber: Nobody wanted Uber. A lot of regulators didn’t want it. Mayors and deputy mayors didn’t want it, but citizens wanted Uber and eventually accepted the idea of regulating it fairly. I think we’re there now.”
The CEO also says young Democratic voters believe their leaders are making the wrong choices when it comes to digital assets.
“I think President Trump’s move toward Bitcoin and crypto assets has shaken Democrats to their core, and I think very smart, younger Democrats are recognizing that they are completely off base with their positions, completely off base with these SEC lawsuits and regulation by law enforcement, and now they need to get back to the center.”
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Disclaimer: Opinions expressed on The Daily Hodl are not investment advice. Investors should do their own due diligence before making any high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies or digital assets. Please be advised that your transfers and trades are at your own risk, and any losses you may incur are your responsibility. The Daily Hodl does not recommend the buying or selling of any cryptocurrencies or digital assets, nor is The Daily Hodl an investment advisor. Please note that The Daily Hodl participates in affiliate marketing.
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