Markets
Biden ousts Kamala: Crypto markets expect president to be nominated
Two days after US Vice President Kamala Harris became the overwhelming favorite to be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States, incumbent President Joe Biden is once again considered the most likely candidate to win the race in November, according to the Polymarket crypto betting site.
Biden’s odds of being the Democratic nominee rose to 42% on the site Friday, while Harris’s odds fell to 36%. More than $88 million has been wagered so far on who will be the Democratic nominee.
In the popular prediction market, Harris overthrew Biden Earlier this week, in the tumultuous aftermath of the first presidential debate, where the president’s faltering performance sparked concerns about his viability as a candidate and widespread speculation about a possible replacement.
With ratings well above 40% since Tuesday, Harris has held the top spot for nearly two days, though Biden’s chances soared after he told supporters later in the day that “I’m in this race until the end and we will win.
Another strong statement from Biden appears to have played a role in his resurgence, with Polymarket (aka X) noting on Twitter that the president gave a “fiery speech” in Wisconsin on Friday, vowing again to stay in the race. Biden’s odds of dropping out — a separate bet from Polymarket, with $11 million in bets — have dropped to 59%, the site noted.
Those odds, which have rebounded somewhat to 61% at the time of writing, were as high as 82% on Tuesday.
Unlike the volatility in the prediction market seen for Democratic Party candidates (where Polymarket users give former first lady Michelle Obama a 7% chance of being the party’s presidential nominee, despite her frequent and clear assertions that she will not run), things have remained fairly stable for Biden’s presumptive challenger.
According to Polymarket, former President Donald Trump is the favorite to become the next President of the United States, with a 60% chance of winning for over two weeks. In this bet, with over $220 million on the line, Harris is still favored by Polymarket bettors over Biden, with 16% and 13% chances of winning, respectively.
Edited by Andrew Hayward