Markets
Biden’s election prospects plummet in crypto markets after report on Obama concerns
US President Joe Biden’s chances of running for a second term as president are diminishing, according to bettors in the cryptocurrency prediction market Polymarketas speculation about the incumbent commander-in-chief’s growing health problems casts doubt on his fitness to hold the country’s top job.
A Polymarket betting pool holding over $135 million in cryptocurrencies shows that 60% of traders are betting on US Vice President Kamala Harris winning the Democratic presidential nomination by August 21. In comparison, only 28% of users are betting on Biden leading the ticket.
Meanwhile, about 10% of bettors are betting on other potential candidates, including Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, according to Polymarket data. The odds of Harris securing the nomination climbed to 64% earlier Thursday.
Oddsmakers’ confidence in Biden’s ability to secure the Democratic presidential nomination stands in stark contrast to their previous predictions. Last week, oddsmakers estimated Biden’s chances of running for reelection were about 74%, according to a screenshot of Polymarket data. sharing on Twitter (aka X) by pseudonymous Coinbase engineer Yuga.eth.
This stunning reversal of fortune comes amid a report The Washington Post reported that President Barack Obama expressed doubts to his political allies about the “viability” of a second Biden presidential campaign, just a day after Biden revealed he had been diagnosed with COVID-19.
The diagnosis follows widespread public speculation about the octogenarian president’s mental fitness to run for office, following Biden’s poor performance in a public debate with Republican opponent Donald Trump last month.
Prediction markets have sometimes proven to be more accurate barometers of voter behavior than traditional polling methods. PredictIt, a leading prediction market, boasted in a public statement that its traders correctly called the Electoral College results in seven key states in the 2020 U.S. presidential election.
At the same time, many political commentators criticized that year’s pre-election polling data, saying it overestimated Biden’s lead over Trump, according to one report. report According to the nonpartisan think tank Pew Research Center, experts remain divided on whether prediction markets can consistently predict the outcomes of future events.
Edited by Andre Hayward
The views and opinions expressed by the author are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment or other advice.