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IMF says Fed should maintain interest rates until ‘at least’ the end of the year
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva speaks during the 2024 CNBC CEO Council Summit in Washington, DC on June 4, 2024.
Shannon Finney | CNBC
The Federal Reserve should wait to cut interest rates until “at least” the end of the year, according to the head of the International Monetary Fund. The U.S. is the only G20 economy to see growth above pre-pandemic levels, and “robust” growth indicates continued upside risks to inflation, the 190-nation agency said.
“We recognize important upside risks,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said at a press conference on Thursday. “Given these risks, we agree that the Fed should maintain interest rates at current levels until at least the end of 2024.” The Fed’s current federal funds rate has been within the range of 5.25% to 5.50% since July 2023.
The IMF, often called “creditor of last resort”, forecasts that the core personal consumption expenditures price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation measure — will end 2024 at about 2.5% and reach the Fed’s 2% target rate by mid-2025, ahead of the Fed’s own 2026 projection.
US economic strength during the Fed’s rate hike cycle has been helped by labor supply and productivity gains, Georgieva said, while highlighting the need for “clear evidence” that inflation is falling to 2% target before the Fed cuts rates.
However, the IMF’s “more optimistic” assessment of the downward path of inflation is based on indications of a cooling labor market in the US and a weakening of consumer demand.
“I want to acknowledge that one lesson we learned from the last [few] “It is only in years that we have been in a time of greater uncertainty. This uncertainty is also coming. We are confident, however, that the Fed will overcome this, and certainly with the same prudence that it has shown over the past year,” Georgieva said.
Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated Kristalina Georgieva’s name.