News
Inpatient and outpatient volumes will increase over the next decade
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Led by an aging population and the increasing incidence of diseases and chronic conditions such as behavioral health, inpatient (IP) and outpatient (OP) volumes will continue to increase over the next decade, impacting how and where organizations deliver care, from according to the 2024 report. Impact of the change analysis from Sg2, a Vizient company.
The analysis predicts that IP utilization will increase 3% to 31 million annual discharges, while IP days will increase 9% to 170 million over the next decade, impacting healthcare organizations’ ability to manage patient flow. .
Growth in medical discharges will outpace surgical discharges as patients age and are increasingly comorbid, which exacerbates bottlenecks in the emergency department while patients are forced to wait for beds in the inpatient setting, the authors said.
Similar trends will impact the outpatient environment, leading to a projected 17% jump in OP volumes to 5.82 billion. Robust growth will be seen in both OP surgical services, driven by expanding capabilities and procedural needs of patients, and in chronic care needed to manage ongoing conditions such as dysrhythmia and dementia.
WHAT IS THE IMPACT?
IP discharges and OP volumes are expected to grow by 8% and 26%, respectively, over the next decade. This increased demand will put even more pressure on already limited access points, such as primary care or psychotherapy services, the data showed.
IP bariatric surgery volumes will see a 15% decline over the next decade, fueled in part by the scaled adoption of pharmaceuticals coming to market, but also by a shift in commercial and self-pay bariatric surgery volumes shifting toward OP scenario, which is projected to see a 13% increase.
And enabled by greater adoption of technological advances, by 2034, 23% of assessment and management visits will be carried out in a virtual environment.
“We will see more uptake in virtual services that are consultative in nature, such as chronic illness,” said Tori Richie, senior director of intelligence consulting at Sg2 and Impact of Change lead. “Anything that is surgical, like orthopedics or spine, will have less virtual uptake.”
Further enabled by virtual resources, home health is expected to grow 22%. As the aging, high-acuity patient population continues to require longer hospital stays (9% PI growth), organizations must be intentional about how they plan their PI and OP service line strategies.
“How many bed days could home care save?” Richie said. “What other capacity constraints could be alleviated by a robust home care offering? These are questions that organizations should be asking to ensure that resources are effectively distributed in a way that achieves high-quality outcomes for patients.”
THE BIGGEST TREND
A year ago, Kaufman Hall identified lower patient volumes as a persistent challenge for hospitals.
“Hospitals must continue to explore how to treat low-acuity patients in new settings as patient volumes shift to outpatient settings,” said Erik Swanson, senior vice president of data and analysis at Kaufman Hall in May 2023.
Jeff Lagasse is editor of Healthcare Finance News.
Email: jlagasse@himss.org
Healthcare Finance News is a HIMSS Publication in the media.