Markets
Is crypto on the cusp of a bull or bear market? Using Consensus 2024 as a barometer
The question on everyone’s mind at Consensus 2024 seems to be: how on earth should we describe current market sentiment? Are we in a bull market? A bear market? At the dawn of a new bull market? On the verge of collapse again?
Note: The opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of CoinDesk, Inc. or its owners and affiliates. This is an excerpt from The Node newsletter, a daily digest of the most important crypto news from CoinDesk and beyond. You can subscribe to receive the full newsletter here.
Since the launch of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds earlier this year, Bitcoin has regained and even surpassed the all-time high it reached during the heady bull market days of 2021. But for weeks and weeks and weeks, it appears that, at best, the largest crypto is trading sideways.
Overall, there have been many positive developments for crypto in recent months. The European Union, after adopting MiCA last year, is starting to see traction in its domestic crypto market, while other global hubs like Hong Kong, the United Arab Emirates and Caribbean countries have also done so. advance meaningful legislation.
And perhaps more importantly, it finally appears that the regulatory gridlock in the United States is starting to ease. The House recently passed the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century (FIT21) Act last week, marking the furthest a crypto-specific bill has ever reached legislatively. Meanwhile, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has done an about-face on Ether ETFs.
It would seem that the conditions are ripe for a breakout, but so far it is unclear what the future of crypto is.
“Call me cautiously optimistic,” Adam Roberts of institutional portfolio MPC told CoinDesk in a showroom interview. “The approval of the ETH ETF is a sign of change, but it’s not enough to get things moving again.”
“Ask me in two days and I’ll have a better answer,” Roberts added. “Based on how quickly the coffee is brewed, that’s a good indicator.”
It’s a point echoed by Roberts’ colleague Steve Horvath, who joked about using Consensus 2024 as a barometer of market sentiment.
“Based on the crowd – no bears, no bulls,” Horvath said.
Micha Benoliel, co-founder and CEO of Nodle, is a bit more optimistic about recent regulatory changes, noting that the SEC’s heavy-handed approach to crypto oversight has pushed many companies overseas and made it difficult to management of a business at the national level.
If all goes well, “this alone should create a new bull market since the United States remains the largest crypto market in the world,” Benoliel said.
Amanda Wick, founder and CEO of the Association for Women in Crypto and a former Justice Department prosecutor, is also optimistic this year, having looked around the conference room and seen signs of a maturing industry.
“This year, compared to last year, the consensus felt like night and day,” Wick said. “The maturation was evident in the conversations, speakers, sponsors and intentional inclusion of groups working to make the industry more diverse,” she said. added, highlighting outreach this year to include diversity groups such as LGBTQ+ advocates at Web Q. “The industry’s best chance of maintaining a bull run comes through maturation and increased integrity, and the This year’s consensus clearly reflects a positive development in this direction. she concludes.
Indeed, it may not be exactly clear whether crypto is on the cusp of another bull or bear market – but with any luck, it has learned to avoid what caused it to plummet last time.