Markets
Joe Biden’s Polymarket Predictions Odds Little Changed After ABC TV Interview
U.S. President Joe Biden may have sounded more coherent during Friday night’s television interview compared to the debate a week ago, but his re-election chances have not changed substantially, according to traders at cryptocurrency-based prediction platform Polymarket.
For the contract requesting who will win the presidency In November, Biden “yes” shares were trading at 11 cents shortly after George Stephanopoulos’ ABC News interview aired, down a penny from before the broadcast. Each share yields $1 (in USDC, a stablecoin or cryptocurrency that trades at parity with the dollar) if the prediction comes true, and nothing if it doesn’t. So a price of 11 cents means the market believes the incumbent president has an 11% chance of winning.
A month ago, the stock was trading at 36 cents. It plummeted after Biden’s disastrous debate performance against former president and Republican nominee Donald Trump. Now, Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) is rallying his fellow Democrats to urge the president to drop out of the race. The Washington Post reported Friday.
The presidential winner’s contract is the largest on Polymarket, with $229 million in bets placed.
A third contract is required if Biden gives up of the race, with $12 million at stake on the outcome. Odds have increased three points to 65%.
Four-year-old Polymarket’s volume has surged this year as the November U.S. election sparked excitement about political betting. June was the platform’s first month to record volume above $100 million. Polymarket also recently won awards for report earlythrough the levels of the “Is Biden Giving Up?” contract negotiation, that the president’s cognitive health was a concern long before the mainstream media seriously addressed the issue.
“Prediction markets have long been considered a prime use case for blockchains,” Galaxy Digital analyst Zack Pokorny wrote in a research note Friday. “Their transparent, global, and censorship- and tamper-resistant nature makes them particularly suited to this task, as they allow for unfiltered opinion on any topic, from anyone, anywhere.
However, on-chain prediction markets have limitations, Pokorny writes. “They only reflect the opinions of individuals who are active on blockchains, which, today, are a small sect of people with maybe similar beliefs. With cryptocurrency becoming an increasingly partisan political issue, and Polymarket being able to only be used with cryptocurrency, it is possible that Polymarket’s political markets could be skewed by the pro-crypto biases of its participants.
UPDATE (July 6, 02:00 UTC): Added details about Senator Mark Warner.