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Treasuries take hit as US election risks come into focus: Markets Wrap

(Bloomberg) — The world’s largest bond market took a hit as investors weighed the potential economic implications of the November U.S. election, following last week’s presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
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While many traders say it’s probably too early to start taking positions or reading too much into election headlines, Wall Street kept a close eye on news surrounding the presidential race. As it did on Friday, Treasuries fell, with longer-term maturities largely underperforming shorter-term ones. Stocks rose slightly amid a rally in tech megacaps. The dollar rose.
Bloomberg News reported that the Democratic National Committee is considering formally nominating Biden as early as mid-July to ensure he is on the November ballot. And a divided Supreme Court ruled that Trump has some immunity from criminal charges for trying to overturn the 2020 election results, all but ensuring that a trial will not happen before the November election.
Investors are now looking to the US election as an even bigger potential market event, as it currently appears that Trump’s chances of retaking the White House have improved significantly, according to Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman of BMO Capital Markets.
“During last week’s presidential debate, neither candidate proposed policies that would reduce the country’s fiscal deficit, which is growing unsustainably,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers. “Meanwhile, the political landscape in the U.S. is highly uncertain as members of the media and several Democrats call for Biden to drop out of the race for the White House following his poor debate performance.”
Yields on the 10-year Treasury approached 4.5%. The S&P 500 rose to about 5,475. Tesla Inc. jumped about 6%. Chewy Inc. suffered a whipsaw when Keith Gill — known as “Roaring Kitty” — disclosed a passive stake in the online pet-products retailer. Gill was sued for allegedly orchestrating a “pump and dump” scheme involving shares of GameStop Corp.
The euro rose as French election results suggested there was a reduced likelihood of extreme policies coming from the far right.
After last week’s presidential debate changed the odds of Trump winning over Biden, Morgan Stanley strategists Matthew Hornbach and Guneet Dhingra are reassessing their election assumptions.
The story continues
“The key issue is that the market now has to deal with the rising probabilities of changes in immigration and tariff policies in an economy where growth is already cooling, making the market more likely to price in more rate cuts,” they wrote. “On the other hand, increased prospects of a Republican victory, amid the growing focus on deficits, could put upward pressure on long-term premiums.”
Treasury reinforcements gain preference in mid-year: research summary
“While the rates market may still trade heightened risks of a Republican victory with an increasingly steep bias for now, we see room for the focus to shift to risks stemming from trade policy (where the differentiation between outcomes is likely to be greater) as the election approaches,” said George Cole of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
While there is a common debate about whether election timing affects the Federal Reserve’s policy choices, history shows that the U.S. central bank has not shied away from taking action during these years, according to Komson Silapachai of Sage Advisory.
Since the 1950s, the Fed has changed its policy rate in every presidential election year, with the exception of 2012, when interest rates were already at zero, Silapachai noted. Even during the second half of presidential election years, at the height of the campaign season, the Fed has not shied away from changing policy as economic and financial conditions warrant.
“The Fed will be guided by economic data, not political pressure, while remaining true to its core objectives of managing inflation and unemployment,” Silapachai added.
The dollar is likely to remain elevated in the second half of the year as the Treasury yield advantage improves, decent U.S. growth momentum and November election risks ease, JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Meera Chandan wrote.
They noted that growth-supportive fiscal policies should also be positive in dollar terms in the near term, despite the medium-term deficit implications.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley equity strategists led by Michael Wilson say investors “should remain selective” and maintain a bias toward quality U.S. stocks heading into election season. Such companies have more stable earnings, stronger balance sheets and higher margins.
“Risks are skewed to the downside for growth under Republican victory scenarios due in part to immigration reform and tariffs,” they wrote. With inflation and fiscal sustainability also in focus, such dynamics “are likely headwinds for lower-quality cyclical and small-cap markets in this scenario.”
U.S. companies face their highest level of profits in nearly three years as they prepare to report second-quarter results, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists led by David Kostin.
“The magnitude of earnings per share will likely decline as consensus forecasts set a higher bar than in prior quarters,” Kostin said. “We expect the outperformance ‘reward’ for stocks that beat estimates to be lower than average again this quarter.”
Corporate Highlights:
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Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. is being investigated by the U.S. Federal Trade Commission over patents on certain drugs, including asthma inhalers, according to a person familiar with the matter.
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Boeing Co. agreed to buy back Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc. for $37.25 a share in an all-stock deal that values the supplier at $4.7 billion, undoing a two-decade separation as the U.S. planemaker tries to fix its manufacturing flaws.
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French antitrust authorities are preparing to charge Nvidia Corp. with alleged anticompetitive practices, Reuters reported, as the world’s most valuable chipmaker faces increasing regulatory scrutiny.
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Meta Platforms Inc. has been given a warning over its subscription model for ad-free services on Instagram and Facebook, risking potentially hefty fines in the European Union’s latest crackdown on Big Tech under tough new rules.
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SVB Financial Group secured a more than $600 million cut in its potential tax bill, increasing some bonds tied to the bankrupt former parent of Silicon Valley Bank and removing a hurdle on its path to paying creditors in Chapter 11.
Main events of this week:
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Eurozone CPI, unemployment, Tuesday
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US Job Openings Tuesday
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Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde to speak at ECB forum in Portugal on Tuesday
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China Caixin services PMI, Wednesday
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Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI, PPI, Wednesday
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US Fed Minutes, ADP Employment, ISM Services, Factory Orders, Initial Jobless Claims, Durable Goods, Wednesday
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Fed’s John Williams speaks Wednesday
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UK General Election, Thursday
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US Independence Day Holiday, Thursday
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Eurozone retail sales, Friday
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US jobs report, Friday
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Fed’s John Williams speaks Friday
Some of the main movements in the markets:
Actions
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The S&P 500 was up 0.3% as of 4 p.m. ET.
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The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7%
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%
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MSCI World Index rose 0.3%
Coins
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The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
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The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0739
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The British pound remained virtually unchanged at $1.2643
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The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 161.46 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
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Bitcoin up 2% to $63,114
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Ether rose 1.5% to $3,467.71
Titles
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The yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose eight basis points to 4.48%
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Germany’s 10-year yield rose 11 basis points to 2.61%
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The yield on 10-year British bonds rose 11 basis points to 4.28%
Commodities
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West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.4% to $83.48 a barrel
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Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,331.72 an ounce
This story was produced with assistance from Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric, Sagarika Jaisinghani, Masaki Kondo, Felice Maranz, Lynn Thomasson, Julien Ponthus, John Viljoen, Catherine Bosley and Matthew Burgess.
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Modiv Industrial to release Q2 2024 financial results on August 6

RENO, Nev., August 1, 2024–(BUSINESS THREAD)–Modiv Industrial, Inc. (“Modiv” or the “Company”) (NYSE:MDV), the only public REIT focused exclusively on the acquisition of industrial real estate properties, today announced that it will release second quarter 2024 financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2024 before the market opens on Tuesday, August 6, 2024. Management will host a conference call the same day at 7:30 a.m. Pacific Time (10:30 a.m. Eastern Time) to discuss the results.
Live conference call: 1-877-407-0789 or 1-201-689-8562 at 7:30 a.m. Pacific Time Tuesday, August 6.
Internet broadcast: To listen to the webcast, live or archived, use this link https://callme.viavid.com/viavid/?callme=true&passcode=13740174&h=true&info=company&r=true&B=6 or visit the investor relations page of the Modiv website at www.modiv.com.
About Modiv Industrial
Modiv Industrial, Inc. is an internally managed REIT focused on single-tenant net-leased industrial manufacturing real estate. The company actively acquires critical industrial manufacturing properties with long-term leases to tenants that fuel the national economy and strengthen the nation’s supply chains. For more information, visit: www.modiv.com.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240731628803/en/
Contacts
Investor Inquiries:
management@modiv.com
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Volta Finance Limited – Director/PDMR Shareholding

Volta Finance Limited
Volta Finance Limited (VTA/VTAS)
Notification of transactions by directors, persons exercising managerial functions
responsibilities and people closely associated with them
NOT FOR DISCLOSURE, DISTRIBUTION OR PUBLICATION, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN THE UNITED STATES
*****
Guernsey, 1 August 2024
Pursuant to announcements made on 5 April 2019 and 26 June 2020 relating to changes to the payment of directors’ fees, Volta Finance Limited (the “Company” or “Volta”) purchased 3,380 no par value ordinary shares of the Company (“Ordinary Shares”) at an average price of €5.2 per share.
Each director receives 30% of his or her director’s fee for any year in the form of shares, which he or she is required to hold for a period of not less than one year from the respective date of issue.
The shares will be issued to the Directors, who for the purposes of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 on Market Abuse (“March“) are “people who exercise managerial responsibilities” (a “PDMR“).
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Dagmar Kershaw, Chairman and MDMR for purposes of MAR, has acquired an additional 1,040 Common Shares in the Company. Following the settlement of this transaction, Ms. Kershaw will have an interest in 12,838 Common Shares, representing 0.03% of the Company’s issued shares;
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Stephen Le Page, a Director and a PDMR for MAR purposes, has acquired an additional 728 Ordinary Shares in the Company. Following the settlement of this transaction, Mr. Le Page will have an interest in 50,562 Ordinary Shares, representing 0.14% of the issued shares of the Company;
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Yedau Ogoundele, Director and a PDMR for the purposes of MAR has acquired an additional 728 Ordinary Shares in the Company. Following the settlement of this transaction, Ms. Ogoundele will have an interest in 6,862 Ordinary Shares, representing 0.02% of the issued shares of the Company; and
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Joanne Peacegood, Director and PDMR for MAR purposes has acquired an additional 884 Ordinary Shares in the Company. Following the settlement of this transaction, Ms. Peacegood will have an interest in 3,505 Ordinary Shares, representing 0.01% of the issued shares of the Company;
The notifications below, made in accordance with the requirements of the MAR, provide further details in relation to the above transactions:
a) Dagmar Kershaw |
b) Stephen LePage |
c) Yedau Ogoundele |
e) Joanne Pazgood |
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a. Position/status |
Director |
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b. Initial Notification/Amendment |
Initial notification |
|||||
|
||||||
a name |
Volta Finance Limited |
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b. LAW |
2138004N6QDNAZ2V3W80 |
|||||
a. Description of the financial instrument, type of instrument |
Ordinary actions |
|||||
b. Identification code |
GG00B1GHHH78 |
|||||
c. Nature of the transaction |
Acquisition and Allocation of Common Shares in Relation to Partial Payment of Directors’ Fees for the Quarter Ended July 31, 2024 |
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d. Price(s) |
€5.2 per share |
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e. Volume(s) |
Total: 3380 |
|||||
f. Transaction date |
August 1, 2024 |
|||||
g. Location of transaction |
At the Market – London |
|||||
The) |
B) |
w) |
It is) |
|||
Aggregate Volume: Price: |
Aggregate Volume: Price: |
Aggregate Volume: Price: |
Aggregate Volume: Price: |
CONTACTS
For the investment manager
AXA Investment Managers Paris
Francois Touati
francois.touati@axa-im.com
+33 (0) 1 44 45 80 22
Olivier Pons
Olivier.pons@axa-im.com
+33 (0) 1 44 45 87 30
Company Secretary and Administrator
BNP Paribas SA, Guernsey branch
guernsey.bp2s.volta.cosec@bnpparibas.com
+44 (0) 1481 750 853
Corporate Broker
Cavendish Securities plc
Andre Worn Out
Daniel Balabanoff
+44 (0) 20 7397 8900
*****
ABOUT VOLTA FINANCE LIMITED
Volta Finance Limited is incorporated in Guernsey under the Companies (Guernsey) Law, 2008 (as amended) and listed on Euronext Amsterdam and the Main Market of the London Stock Exchange for listed securities. Volta’s home member state for the purposes of the EU Transparency Directive is the Netherlands. As such, Volta is subject to the regulation and supervision of the AFM, which is the regulator of the financial markets in the Netherlands.
Volta’s investment objectives are to preserve its capital throughout the credit cycle and to provide a stable income stream to its shareholders through dividends that it expects to distribute quarterly. The company currently seeks to achieve its investment objectives by seeking exposure predominantly to CLOs and similar asset classes. A more diversified investment strategy in structured finance assets may be pursued opportunistically. The company has appointed AXA Investment Managers Paris, an investment management firm with a division specializing in structured credit, to manage the investment portfolio of all of its assets.
*****
ABOUT AXA INVESTMENT MANAGERS
AXA Investment Managers (AXA IM) is a multi-specialist asset management firm within the AXA Group, a global leader in financial protection and wealth management. AXA IM is one of the largest European-based asset managers with 2,700 professionals and €844 billion in assets under management at the end of December 2023.
*****
This press release is issued by AXA Investment Managers Paris (“AXA IM”) in its capacity as alternative investment fund manager (within the meaning of Directive 2011/61/EU, the “AIFM Directive”) of Volta Finance Limited (“Volta Finance”), the portfolio of which is managed by AXA IM.
This press release is for information only and does not constitute an invitation or inducement to purchase shares of Volta Finance. Its circulation may be prohibited in certain jurisdictions and no recipient may circulate copies of this document in violation of such limitations or restrictions. This document is not an offer to sell the securities referred to herein in the United States or to persons who are “U.S. persons” for purposes of Regulation S under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or otherwise in circumstances where such an offering would be restricted by applicable law. Such securities may not be sold in the United States absent registration or an exemption from registration under the Securities Act. Volta Finance does not intend to register any part of the offering of such securities in the United States or to conduct a public offering of such securities in the United States.
*****
This communication is being distributed to, and is directed only at, (i) persons who are outside the United Kingdom or (ii) investment professionals falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “Order”) or (iii) high net worth companies and other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Order (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons”). The securities referred to herein are available only to, and any invitation, offer or agreement to subscribe for, purchase or otherwise acquire such securities will be made only to, relevant persons. Any person who is not a relevant person should not act on or rely on this document or any of its contents. Past performance should not be relied upon as a guide to future performance.
*****
This press release contains statements that are, or may be deemed to be, “forward-looking statements”. These forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology, including the words “believes”, “anticipates”, “expects”, “intends”, “is/are expected”, “may”, “will” or “should”. They include statements about the level of the dividend, the current market environment and its impact on the long-term return on Volta Finance’s investments. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties and readers are cautioned that such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. Actual results, portfolio composition and performance of Volta Finance may differ materially from the impression created by the forward-looking statements. AXA IM undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise forward-looking statements.
Any target information is based on certain assumptions as to future events that may not materialize. Due to the uncertainty surrounding these future events, targets are not intended to be and should not be considered to be profits or earnings or any other type of forecast. There can be no assurance that any of these targets will be achieved. Furthermore, no assurance can be given that the investment objective will be achieved.
Figures provided which relate to past months or years and past performance cannot be considered as a guide to future performance or construed as a reliable indicator as to future performance. Throughout this review, the citation of specific trades or strategies is intended to illustrate some of Volta Finance’s investment methodologies and philosophies as implemented by AXA IM. The historical success or AXA IM’s belief in the future success of any such trade or strategy is not indicative of, and has no bearing on, future results.
The valuation of financial assets may vary significantly from the prices that AXA IM could obtain if it sought to liquidate the positions on Volta Finance’s behalf due to market conditions and the general economic environment. Such valuations do not constitute a fairness or similar opinion and should not be relied upon as such.
Publisher: AXA INVESTMENT MANAGERS PARIS, a company incorporated under the laws of France, with registered office at Tour Majunga, 6, Place de la Pyramide – 92800 Puteaux. AXA IMP is authorized by Autorité des Marchés Financiers under registration number GP92008 as an alternative investment fund manager within the meaning of the AIFM Directive.
*****
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Apple to report third-quarter earnings as Wall Street eyes China sales

Litter (AAPL) is set to report its fiscal third-quarter earnings after the market closes on Thursday, and unlike the rest of its tech peers, the main story won’t be about the rise of AI.
Instead, analysts and investors will be keeping a close eye on iPhone sales in China and whether Apple has managed to stem the tide of users switching to domestic rivals including Huawei.
For the quarter, analysts expect Apple to report earnings per share (EPS) of $1.35 on revenue of $84.4 billion, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Apple saw EPS of $1.26 on revenue of $81.7 billion in the same period last year.
Apple shares are up about 18.6% year to date despite a rocky start to the year, thanks in part to the impact of the company’s Worldwide Developer Conference (WWDC) in May, where showed off its Apple Intelligence software.
But the big question on investors’ minds is whether iPhone sales have risen or fallen in China. Apple has struggled with slowing phone sales in the region, with the company noting an 8% decline in sales in the second quarter as local rivals including Huawei and Xiaomi gain market share.
Apple CEO Tim Cook delivers remarks at the start of the Apple Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC). (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images) (Justin Sullivan via Getty Images)
And while some analysts, such as JPMorgan’s Samik Chatterjee, believe sales in Greater China, which includes mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan, rose in the third quarter, others, including David Vogt of UBS Global Research, say sales likely fell about 6%.
Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg say Apple will report revenue of $15.2 billion in Greater China, down 3.1% from the same quarter last year, when Apple reported revenue of $15.7 billion in China. Overall iPhone sales are expected to reach $38.9 billion, down 1.8% year over year from the $39.6 billion Apple saw in the third quarter of 2023.
But Apple is expected to make up for those declines in other areas, including Services and iPad sales. Services revenue is expected to reach $23.9 billion in the quarter, up from $21.2 billion in the third quarter of 2023, while iPad sales are expected to reach $6.6 billion, up from the $5.7 billion the segment brought in in the same period last year. Those iPad sales projections come after Apple launched its latest iPad models this year, including a new iPad Pro lineup powered by the company’s M4 chip.
Mac revenue is also expected to grow modestly in the quarter, versus a 7.3% decline last year. Sales of wearables, which include the Apple Watch and AirPods, however, are expected to decline 5.9% year over year.
In addition to Apple’s revenue numbers, analysts and investors will be listening closely for any commentary on the company’s software launches. Apple Intelligence beta for developers earlier this week.
The story continues
The software, which is powered by Apple’s generative AI technology, is expected to arrive on iPhones, iPads and Macs later this fall, though according to Bloomberg’s Marc GurmanIt won’t arrive alongside the new iPhone in September. Instead, it’s expected to arrive on Apple devices sometime in October.
Analysts are divided on the potential impact of Apple Intelligence on iPhone sales next year, with some saying the software will kick off a new iPhone sales supercycle and others offering more pessimistic expectations about the technology’s effect on Apple’s profits.
It’s important to note that Apple Intelligence is only compatible with the iPhone 15 Pro and newer phones, ensuring that all users desperate to get their hands on the tech will have to upgrade to a newer, more powerful phone as soon as it is available.
Either way, if Apple wants to make Apple Intelligence a success, it will need to ensure it has the features that will make customers excited to take advantage of the offering.
Subscribe to the Yahoo Finance Tech Newsletter. (Yahoo Finance)
Email Daniel Howley at dhowley@yahoofinance.com. Follow him on Twitter at @DanielHowley.
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Number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits hits highest level in a year

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits hit its highest level in a year last week, even as the job market remains surprisingly healthy in an era of high interest rates.
Jobless claims for the week ending July 27 rose 14,000 to 249,000 from 235,000 the previous week, the Labor Department said Thursday. It’s the highest number since the first week of August last year and the 10th straight week that claims have been above 220,000. Before that period, claims had remained below that level in all but three weeks this year.
Weekly jobless claims are widely considered representative of layoffs, and while they have been slightly higher in recent months, they remain at historically healthy levels.
Strong consumer demand and a resilient labor market helped avert a recession that many economists predicted during the Federal Reserve’s prolonged wave of rate hikes that began in March 2022.
As inflation continues to declinethe Fed’s goal of a soft landing — reducing inflation without causing a recession and mass layoffs — appears to be within reach.
On Wednesday, the Fed left your reference rate aloneBut officials have strongly suggested a cut could come in September if the data stays on its recent trajectory. And recent labor market data suggests some weakening.
The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in June, despite the fact that American employers added 206,000 jobs. U.S. job openings also fell slightly last month. Add that to the rise in layoffs, and the Fed could be poised to cut interest rates next month, as most analysts expect.
The four-week average of claims, which smooths out some of the weekly ups and downs, rose by 2,500 to 238,000.
The total number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits in the week of July 20 jumped by 33,000 to 1.88 million. The four-week average for continuing claims rose to 1,857,000, the highest since December 2021.
Continuing claims have been rising in recent months, suggesting that some Americans receiving unemployment benefits are finding it harder to get jobs.
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