Markets
Trump widens his lead over Biden (on Polymarket and PredictIt) after courting the crypto vote
This week on the prediction markets:
Taking a strongly pro-crypto stance could have strengthened Donald Trump’s lead over outgoing President Joe Biden – at least if market forecasts are anything to go by.
Last week, Trump promised to commute the sentence Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht – a figure near and dear to many in the crypto community – and vowed to ensure that the United States a leader in the digital assets sector. This is a significantly more attentive stance than that taken by the Biden administration.
During the same period, Biden “yes” shares on PredictIt, an election betting platform popular among retail traders that settles transactions in dollars, fell to 44 cents from 46 cents. Each share earns $1 if Biden is re-elected, and nothing if he loses. Indeed, the price of 44 cents means that the market estimates he has a 44% chance of being re-elected.
Crypto-based Polymarket, which technically prohibits US residents from using its service, showed a similar shift in odds.
Polls have shown neither such a dramatic gap between the two candidates nor such a dramatic shift over the past week. Trump’s lead in the polls increased by only 80 basis points, to 1.7%, according to FiveThirtyEight Averages. Proponents of prediction markets say they can be a more reliable sentiment measuring and forecasting tool because unlike people answering questions on the phone, bettors have a stake in the game.
Markets also focused on North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum as a possible running mate for Trump.
On PolymarchéBurgum shares rose three percentage points and are currently trading up 18%, or 18 cents, while I’m on PredictItthey are down slightly, trading at 15 cents.
On both platforms, Burgum is behind Tim Scott, who maintains a lead of 23% on PredictIt and 27% on Polymarket, well ahead of established Republicans like Marco Rubio, at 10% on Polymarket, or Nikki Haley, at 4%.
An obscure dispute has arisen on Polymarket regarding the resolution of the contract on whether the United States Securities and Exchange Commission would bless ether ETFs. Oddsmakers argue over whether “approval” means only Forms 19b-4 or also S-1 filings.
But as baseball legend Yogi Berra said, it ain’t over till it’s over.
Although the SEC has approved Forms 19b-4 for ETFs, it still must approve S-1 filings before trading can begin, James Seyffart, ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, told CoinDesk.
“ETFs are not considered ‘approved’ until the corresponding registration form (such as S-1, N-1A or N-2) and 19b-4 filing have been signed by the SEC” , Matthew Sigel, Managing Director of VanEck. head of research, posted on (formerly Twitter).
Despite these bureaucratic details, the Polymarket contract, which received more than $13 million in bets, still answered “yes”, meaning that the “oracle” or arbiter of the contract decided that the matter was settled.
And it saved money in the long run.
A user passing through the handle Paperlisswho bought near the bottom of the market at 7 cents, turned just over $300 into $4,358 for a 1,329% return.
Meanwhile, the largest holder of “Yes” shares in the contract, I’m not going to be wrongposted a 61% return, bringing his stake from just over $10,000 to a value of $16,902 at contract close.