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Donald Trump surprised the world by winning the 2016 US presidential election, establishing a mystique as someone who can break rules, violate norms, take crazy risks and still win.
The mystique disappeared.
Since 2018, Trump has suffered a series of losses that should bury the idea that Trump somehow defies gravity in politics and business. The last confrontation is his conviction in a criminal trial in New York City on 34 counts of falsifying business records, related to Stormy Daniels’ notorious hush money payment just before the 2016 election. A jury found that a series of checks signed by Trump to cover the payment were falsely labeled as legal expenses on your company’s books, which amounts to criminal offenses.
Trump could face prison time if his appeal fails to overturn the verdict, but it appears more likely that he will be released on parole. But prison time is still a possibility in three other criminal trials where Trump faces more than 50 additional criminal charges. He also faces astronomical legal bills.
Trump will score a much-needed victory in July, when the Republican Party is expected to make him its official candidate in the 2024 presidential race. But his growing record as a serial loser should worry his supporters. Here are seven other prominent examples:
The 2018 midterm elections. Voter disgust with Trump in the second year of his presidency helped Democrats win 40 seats and win back the House of Representatives of Trump’s Republican Party. While it is normal for the president’s party to lose ground in midterm elections, exit polls in 2018 revealed unusually high levels of opposition to Trump, which fueled record attendance. Control of the House allowed Democrats to block Trump’s legislative agenda during the last two years of his presidency.
The 2020 presidential elections. Trump was the first incumbent to lose a re-election bid since George HW Bush in 1992.
The 2020 Senate race. Control of the Senate in the 2020 elections came down to two runoff races in Georgia, which were only concluded in early January 2021. Two Democratic challengers ended up defeating two Republican incumbents, an unlikely Hollywood ending for the Democrats who gave them gave a one-vote majority and control of both houses of Congress. Many analysts, including Republicans, have blamed Trump’s election denialism and his fights with other Republicans for the Georgia Senate defeats. These two Senate seats allowed Democrats to pass a massive stimulus bill in 2021 and a huge set of green energy incentives in 2022 that never would have happened if Republicans had maintained control of the Senate.
The story continues
Former US President Donald Trump speaks to the press upon arriving at the Manhattan Criminal Court in New York City on February 15, 2024. (ANGELA WEISS/AFP via Getty Images) (ANGELA WEISS via Getty Images)
The 2022 midterm exams. Trump has endorsed several Republicans in 2022, including many incumbents with no chance of losing. In competitive racing, however, most of Trump’s picks lostIncluding Senate candidates Herschel Walker in Georgia, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and Blake Masters in Arizona, allowing Democrats to keep the Senate. Republicans won control of the House, but barely, with Democrats outperforming. Once again, exit polls showed that Trump’s involvement hurt Republicans.
Trump Organization fraud case. In December 2022, a New York jury condemned Trump’s real estate agency on 17 counts of tax fraud and other crimes. It’s the same case in which former CFO Allen Weisselberg pleaded guilty to tax crimes. A judge fined the company $1.6 million, the maximum allowed. Prosecutors did not charge Trump personally.
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E. Jean Carroll Lawsuits. Last year, a federal jury concluded that Trump sexually abused and defamed the New York writer, ordering him to pay him $5 million. Trump continued to publicly criticize Carroll, and in January, another jury ordered Trump to pay Carroll an additional $83.3 million. Trump continued to attack Carroll, raising the possibility that she could come back for even more.
New York State Fraud Prosecution. Last September, a judge found that Trump, his company and several executives defrauded banks and insurance companies by substantially and repeatedly overstating the value of certain properties. On February 17, the same judge hit Trump with $355 million in fines, plus interest that brought the total to more than $450 million.
Trump famously said in 2016 that he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue in New York and will not suffer consequences. He and his supporters should reevaluate. Over the past few years, Trump has repeatedly suffered consequences for cheating, intimidating, lying and overestimating his capabilities. The stakes are about to get even higher.
Next up is a federal trial over Trump’s role in the Jan. 6, 2021, riots, the riots at the U.S. Capitol and another over his misuse of classified documents after he left the White House. Then there is the Fulton County, Georgia trial for voter fraud. Those likely won’t begin until after this year’s election, and Trump could withdraw both federal cases if he becomes president again.
Trump appears to be winning points with his supporters by complaining to judges and prosecutors and proclaiming himself a political martyr, but he is losing cases on facts and elections due to bad politics. Some analysts speculate that Trump’s legal catastrophes could force him to declare personal bankruptcy.
As for the 2024 election, Trump is once again defying the odds by being the only presidential candidate from a major political party to be a convicted felon. But Trump is no longer the destroyer of the system he claimed to be in 2016. The system he wants to destroy is reacting and racking up a considerable series of victories.
Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter at @rickjnewman.
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