Markets
Trump’s Polymarket Odds Hit New All-Time High After Vance Nominated as Vice President
Donald Trump’s chances of retaking the White House in November have hit a new all-time high after he selected Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) as his running mate, traders at cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket report.
The “yes” vote is in favor of Trump for the presidential election according to Polymarket contract Trump’s stock was trading at 72 cents mid-morning Tuesday, New York time, indicating that the market believes the Republican candidate has a 72% chance of winning. Each share yields $1 if the associated prediction comes true and bupkis if it doesn’t. The bets are programmed into a smart contract, or software application, on the Polygon blockchain and denominated in USDC, a stablecoin or cryptocurrency that trades 1:1 against dollars.
Trump announced his selection Monday, two days after the former president’s chances of victory peaked. previous recording by 70% when he survived an assassination attempt at a rally in Pennsylvania.
The poignant incident turned into a victory for the candidate, as iconic images of a bloodied but undefeated Trump circulated online after a fortnight in which the national conversation focused on the senescence of his opponent, incumbent President Joe Biden.
A total of $262 million was wagered on Polymarket’s presidential election contract, a save for crypto-based prediction markets, otherwise all Prediction markets. The four-year-old platform is riding a wave of election betting, though it is closed in the United States under a regulatory deal.
PredictIt, a former election betting site that operates in the United States under a Limited regulatory exemption and settles bets in old-fashioned greenbacks, showed a similar trendShares of Trump’s “yes” vote climbed to 69 cents, up from 60 cents before the Pennsylvania shootings.
In prediction markets, traders bet on the verifiable outcome of real events within set time frames. Bets can be on anything from weather report in the elections at sport events has celebrity romances.
Critics call prediction markets a form of playBut proponents of these predictions claim that they have positive implications for the public. People who make predictions are putting money on the line, so they have a strong incentive to do careful research and express their honest opinionswhich makes them arguably more reliable forecasters than pollsters or experts.