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What’s Next on Trump’s Legally Dangerous Path to 2024
The grueling election campaign became considerably more arduous for former President Donald Trump when a New York jury found him guilty of 34 felonies.
As he makes appearances from coast to coast in the coming months to solicit votes, the 77-year-old GOP leader will also need to meet with his parole officer, work on his appeal and attend a sentencing hearing in Manhattan that will take the risk of spending time behind bars.
And all this just refers one of four criminal questions that Trump will juggle as Election Day approaches on November 5th.
The presumptive Republican presidential nominee is also a defendant in:
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A Florida federal case alleging he mishandled confidential documents;
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A federal case in the District of Columbia alleging he fueled the January 6, 2021 riots at the United States Capitol;
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A case in Georgia alleging he illegally challenged the results of votes cast in the 2016 presidential election.
What follows is a closer look at how Trump’s legal troubles will intersect with his second run for the White House throughout the rest of this summer, likely setting the tone for the 2024 campaign.
June
This is a critical month for Trump on several fronts.
On the campaign side, he will need to prepare for a primetime CNN debate with President Joe Biden on June 27.
On the legal side, he will likely meet with a probation officer assigned to evaluate his case in New York. It is this person who will recommend to the judge a punishment appropriate to the defendant’s crimes.
Last week, a jury found that Trump violated a New York state law that makes it illegal to conspire to influence a person’s election to public office through another crime.
Jurors concluded that Trump violated that law by disguising $130,000 in hush money paid to porn star Stormy Daniels as payments for legal services.
The Supreme Court is likely to make a decision by the end of June that will have far-reaching implications for Donald Trump’s criminal cases. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)
As Trump begins his talks with a parole officer in New York, the Supreme Court in Washington, D.C., is likely to make another big decision that could have a considerable impact on all pending criminal matters against the former president.
The high court is expected to rule by the end of the month whether Trump’s immunity from prosecution as president extended to his actions after the 2020 election.
The argument concerns the case in Georgia. His lawyers argue that Trump cannot be prosecuted for trying to subvert the 2020 presidential election because the events in question were official actions as president — not private actions.
If the high court rules in Trump’s favor, the ruling could prevent the Georgia case from moving forward. It could also suspend the other two criminal cases pending against him.
The story continues
July
July is another seismic month for Trump, starting with his sentencing in the New York case on July 11.
This decision will be made by judge Juan Merchan, responsible for the case during the trial. Trump criticized Merchan as “highly confrontational” and as an overseer of a “kangaroo court.”
The two clashed repeatedly throughout the trial, as Merchan granted Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s request to impose a gag order against the former president, and the judge fined Trump for violating those terms.
Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg speaks to the media after a jury found former President Donald Trump guilty of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)
When calculating Trump’s sentence, the judge may take these violations into account.
Prison time seems unlikely, however. It is unusual for defendants convicted of Class E felonies — the lowest-level type of crime — to receive a prison sentence, especially when, like Trump, the offender has no criminal record.
Another factor that favors the former president’s non-arrest is his age. And some legal experts say the potential negative impact that incarcerating a former president could have on the country also makes it more likely that Trump will be allowed to avoid incarceration.
A major political event looms just days after the sentencing, when the Republican National Convention begins on July 15 in Milwaukee. On July 18, Trump is expected to take the stage as the party’s official candidate for president.
August
August will likely mark another critical legal deadline for Trump if he decides to appeal the New York case, as he has said he will.
That request must be filed within 30 days of the July 11 sentencing, giving his lawyers until August 10 to prepare an argument to overturn his conviction.
The appeal, which could take months or years, according to legal experts, will probably extend well beyond the November elections. A successful appeal would require Trump to prove that the judge made mistakes during the course of the criminal case.
Former President Donald Trump on May 21, in court for his trial at Manhattan Criminal Court in New York. (Michael M. Santiago/Pool photo via AP) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Appellate judges have the power to overrule a trial court judge and allow the defendant to remain free pending the outcome of their appeal.
A ruling against Trump in the appeals court could lead him to request a review from the U.S. Supreme Court.
And the high court could take up such a case if at least four of its justices agreed to hear it.
Alexis Keenan is a legal reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow Alexis on Twitter @alexiskweed.
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