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Who finance professionals say should replace Biden if the president steps aside
Stock market watchers quickly made their own lists of possible replacements for Joe Biden after the president gave a debate speech last Thursday that raised concerns about his fitness for a second term.
They range from the obvious — Vice President Kamala Harris — to less obvious but more business-friendly choices like Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo.
These names suggested by these finance professionals share many similarities with lists released by people in the political world.
But there are also some differences that are instructive about the current state of the Biden administration’s relationship with American businesses — and which of Biden’s allies have made inroads among top executives.
“I think you have to start with the vice president,” said Brian Gardner, chief policy strategist at Stifel in Washington, noting her built-in advantages as the current second-in-command. “So I think it’s a very open field.”
What the business world in general says it wants is stability and a replacement that will not disrupt markets this year, or in 2025 and beyond.
President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden exit Air Force One as they arrive at McGuire Air Force Base in New Jersey on June 29 for a campaign fundraiser. (MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images) (MANDEL NGAN via Getty Images)
For their part, Biden and his close allies have said repeatedly and strongly in recent days that he has no intention of stepping aside. This only minimally quelled speculation following his halting performance.
“There is no clear replacement available,” said Clayton Allen, U.S. director at Eurasia Group. in an appearance on Yahoo Finance Live on Fridaynoting that any choice risks alienating “large parts of the Democratic coalition.”
The 81-year-old president delivered a series of more forceful speeches in the days following the debate that quelled some of the concerns, as well as messages of support from figures such as Barack Obama It is Bill Clinton.
Biden is at Camp David until Monday night for a pre-planned family visit, where, according to multiple reports, he is discussing the next steps of his campaign.
Disclosure for CEOs
A name near the top of lists of political and financial professionals is Harris. The vice president is clearly in a strong position as Washington’s current No. 2, with support from many wings of the Democratic coalition.
In a recent note to clients, AGF Investments chief U.S. policy strategist Greg Valliere called Harris “not necessarily a clear choice for the nomination” given a list of weaknesses, but nonetheless called her ” the early favorite to replace Biden” if the president decides to step aside.
The mentions of Harris are an indication of her strong standing within the party, but also, to some extent, her reach with CEOs.
The story continues
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at an event at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Washington with Kenyan President William Ruto and U.S. Ambassador to Kenya Meg Whitman on May 24. (BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images) (BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI via Getty Images)
In March, Harris had lunch with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon as part of a regular series of meetings with business leaders that she has been conducting.
Harris then visited the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Washington in May, where she met with a number of business leaders, including Mastercard (BAD) CEO Michael Miebach and Microsoft (MSFT) Vice President and Chairman Brad Smith.
In a deeper look at its CEO’s “charm offensive” published a few days before the debateBloomberg described Harris as someone who “offers an olive branch” to a community wary of Biden.
Another Biden-world figure who received at least some mention is Raimondo, the Commerce Department secretary.
The former governor of Rhode Island has described to Yahoo Finance in the past how much time she spends on the phone taking the temperature of the business community. She says it’s an essential part of her role as Secretary of Commerce.
Raimondo also received praise for her stewardship of Biden’s key economic programs, especially the implementation of the CHIPs and Science Act of 2022, which is in the process of sending billions to revamp the semiconductor industry.
“A lot of companies like it,” noted Steve Pavlick of Renaissance Macro in a live appearance on Yahoo Finance.
Her name has also appeared on other lists, including by New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof, who described her as one of the figures who “would be well-positioned to defeat Trump.”
Raimondo stood out on the list of candidates compiled by the Economist and even above other names more frequently mentioned in political circles, such as Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer.
Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo speaks at an Artificial Intelligence (AI) Security Summit in England last November. (TOBY MELVILLE/POOL/AFP via Getty Images) (TOBY MELVILLE via Getty Images)
What is perhaps being ignored is the criticism Raimondo would likely receive from the Democratic base for being too business-friendly.
As an example, Senator Elizabeth Warren sent Secretary Raimondo a series of letters in recent months about issues like Big Tech It is replacement who often raised concerns about whether Raimondo (who had a career in finance before entering politics) was too open to business concerns.
There is a name recognition problem.
Raimondo may be well known in C-Suites, but a recent research from Blueprint 2024 found that 85% of Americans have no opinion of her one way or another, making her one of Biden’s cabinet members with the least national name recognition.
In a note Monday, Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer highlighted that a key hurdle for Raimondo and Whitmer (as well as Transportation Secretary Pete Buttegieg) is that “they are all only modestly popular and untested in the national scene”.
Other names—and new promises from Biden to stay in the race
Lists from the business world also include a number of important figures in the political world.
California Governor Gavin Newsom is clearly in the race, but observers note that he is currently facing a contentious budget debate in California that could hurt his chances.
California Governor Gavin Newsom (D-CA) after speaking to reporters following the CNN presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in Atlanta. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images) (Andrew Harnik via Getty Images)
Two other swing state governors, Whitmer of Michigan and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, are also frequently mentioned. So are Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and others.
All of this speculation will, of course, be moot if Biden stays in the race, as he has repeatedly promised to do.
From him political allies It is members of the family — not to mention nearly every Democratic elected official, as well as the candidates listed to replace him — have repeatedly tried this week to excuse last week’s debate performance and blame other factors.
As for the president’s debate at Camp David this weekend, a New York Times report He painted a picture of conversations with family members who encourage him to keep fighting.
And like Harris herself I put this during an appearance on CNN Immediately following the debate, Biden had a “slow start” but “a strong finish.”
This post has been updated.
Ben Werschkul is the Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
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